Steven Rosefielde, D. Quinn Mil Masters of Illusion, American L

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.Furthermore, and most important, the danger that such wars presentto humanity is now enormously increased by the proliferation of atomicweapons.The challenges we face are the consequences of major, long-term develop-ments in the world economy and demographics, including dramatic shiftsin international wealth and power among nations – it is these shifts that aredriving both Russia and China and others of our rivals, though in differentdirections.Projections of national economic growth over the next severaldecades are the bridge between discussions of the military potential of pos-sible adversaries and the strategy that is best for the United States.Suchprojections offer measures of the strength of our possible adversaries and ofour own ability to counter them.This book presents economic and military forecasts for world powers andthe strategy necessary for America to best confront mounting dangers.Following are key propositions about America leadership and the worldsituation:r American presidential leadership must master a public culture full ofillusions about the world;r Major economic and demographic changes among the nations of theworld are certain to generate conflict;r Adjustment to change is the big new demand on the international order;andr The international order is full of interdependencies which cannot beobjectively assessed in the context of analysis on a country-by-countrybasis, but must instead be assessed in the context of a limited number ofvortexes of danger each involving many countries.A major reconfiguration of wealth and power among nations is underway.It poses problems that our public culture is preventing most peoplefrom facing squarely.Our country’s leaders need to do three things:1.Objectively assess our risks and vulnerabilities;2.Try to limit the scope of conflict so that as little damage occurs aspossible; and3.Be sure we prevail in any contest.P1: FCW0521857444c01Printer: cupusbwCUNY475B/Rosefielde0 521 85744 9November 3, 200611:4214National Security in the New AgeToday:r America has the economic and military potential to chart its own strategicpath in the future without needing to placate others.We call this approachStrategic Independence (SI) and recommend it as the national defensestrategy of the United States.r The prospects for the economic, technological and political developmentof the United States are so favorable compared to most other nations thatthere is little likelihood of the United States entering a period of significantdecline in international influence, unless our leadership blunders badly(a possibility that is all too possible, given the context of wishful thinkingabout global issues in which an American president must act).William Odom and Robert Dujarric note that the United States has suchstrengths in its economy, demographics, science, technology, and educationthat the major threat is not a rival power but ineffective U.S.leadership.10We currently have considerable friction with many of our former alliesbecause the end of the Cold War is dividing our interests.The United Statesis progressing toward a peak in its international leadership, and our formerallies are receding in relative economic strength, military power, nationalresolve, and international influence.Many of our former allies now approachus with an attitude of resentment akin to that of the Greeks in the first centuryb.c.e.as they contemplated the rising power of Rome and desperately soughtto subject it to their leadership.As Polybius, a first century b.c.e.Greek,told his fellows: “As, in other states, a man is rarely found whose handsare pure from public robbery, so, among the Romans, it is no less rareto discover one that is tainted with this crime.But all things are subjectto decay and change.” Thus, it is that envious rivals await the decay ofAmerica.r The United States will have to adroitly manage two major powers under-going dramatic transitions in the decades ahead, each in opposite direc-tions.Russia is entering a permanent decline; in the transition we mustcarefully avoid an occasion in which Russia will employ its still formidablemilitary force against us.The power of China will wax in the next twodecades, while resurgent nationalism threatens to turn Chinese economicadvances from peaceful trade to military adventure.We must forestall amilitary confrontation until the long-term disadvantages of the Chineseeconomic culture begin to negate its current advantages of backwardness(that is, of the relatively easy course of economic catchup), a dynamic thathas previously occurred for Russia, Eastern Europe and Japan.P1: FCW0521857444c01Printer: cupusbwCUNY475B/Rosefielde0 521 85744 9November 3, 200611:42A World Wounded15The best way to deal with international discord is a geopolitical strategyin which the United States seeks increasing independence from its erstwhileallies.This is a similar strategy to that which, when employed by the BushAdministration in Iraq, encountered bitter criticism.We do not recommendthat America abandon engagement with other nations, but that we refuse toaccept foreign control over our security policies and defense expenditures.If properly informed, Americans are likely to embrace Strategic Inde-pendence (and our friends abroad will understand why Americans do so).Such is popular sovereignty – the core value of democracy.Americans arealso likely to reject the claims of outsiders to transgress in our elections, orimpose their laws or perspectives or interests upon us [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]

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